The Dunning-Kruger Threshold, or, Congratulations, You Suck
The counterfeit innovator is wildly self-confident. The real one is scared to death. --Steven Pressfield, The War of Art In December of 1999, Justin Kruger and David Dunning published a paper entitled Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments . In it, they described what has since become known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. If you’ve ever seen a craptastic poet who thinks he’s some kind of genius, you’ve seen the Dunning-Kruger effect. If you’ve ever seen a brilliant artist fret over the tiny flaws in her work, you’ve also seen the Dunning-Kruger effect. The gist of the paper, as the title indicates, is that the worse you are at something, the worse you are at determining just how bad you are at it. The flip side of this is that the more skilled you become, the better you get at assessing your ability. In the course of the original research, Kruger and Dunning also found that as people ...